In defiance of repeated warnings from the Biden administration, the Ukrainian military continues ramping up kamikaze drone attacks on the Russian energy complex, a move to crush the nation’s crude oil and crude product export revenues and curtail Moscow’s ability to fund President Putin’s ‘special operation’ in Ukraine. 

A fire broke out overnight at Rosneft PJSC’s large Tuapse refinery on the Black Sea. According to Bloomberg, this wave of overnight drone attacks is one of the largest by Ukraine in the multi-year war.

The Tuapse refinery is the only refinery in Russia located on the Black Sea. It produces naphtha, fuel oil, vacuum gas oil, and high-sulfur diesel, which it exports to Turkey, China, Malaysia, and Singapore. 

The refinery has a capacity of about 240,000 barrels per day and was processing approximately 180,000 barrels per day shortly before the first drone attack in January took the plant offline. 

With Ukraine losing ground with Russia, drone attacks by Kyiv’s military and or special operations personnel, likely with help from US intel operators, are stepping up attacks on Russia’s energy complex. 

Russia said it intercepted 51 drones over Crimea in the attack early Friday. Another four dozen above the southern Krasnodar region, six over the Belgorod region, and one in the Kursk region. The Defense Ministry in Moscow wrote on Telegram that Ukrainian naval drones were also destroyed. 

The regional government in Krasnodar Krai wrote on Telegram that the refinery fire was extinguished three hours after the strike. 

Here’s dramatic footage of the drone attack on the Russian Black Sea coast. 

This morning, Ukrainian forces mounted a large scale drone attack along the Russian Black Sea coast, hitting multiple Russian targets in Novorossiysk and Tuapse.

Seen here, a Ukrainian attack drone flies into the burning Tuapse refinery. pic.twitter.com/Malbj48Ojx

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) May 17, 2024

A Ukrainian drone greets the inhabitants of Tuapse

🤣 pic.twitter.com/cXbOgqi6KN

— PS01 (@PStyle0ne1) May 17, 2024

Another rough night for the Russian oil industry after visits from Ukrainian drones.

Here in city of Tuapse, near Sochi, continues to burn into morning. pic.twitter.com/WW505Tz4of

— Jay in Kyiv (@JayinKyiv) May 17, 2024

In mid-April, Reuters estimated that Russia’s refining capacity, which was offline due to drone attacks, was around 660,000 barrels per day, compared to 907,000 bpd offline at the end of March. Russia has stated it can repair damaged refineries over the next few months. 

Last week, Foreign Affairs magazine writer Sam Winter-Levy penned a note titled “Why Ukraine Should Keep Striking Russian Oil Refineries,” explaining that “with less domestic refining capacity, Russia will be forced to export more of its crude oil, not less, pushing global prices down rather than up.” 

In markets, Brent crude prices are marginally higher, above $83 a barrel. The Tuapse refinery attack, plus others in recent months, are reminders of the mounting geopolitical risks that could send oil prices much higher.