After the prior week’s surge to 10-month highs (on the back of California claims suddenly soaring after Newsom introduced his brilliant $20 min wage fast food gambit), analysts expected a small dip in claims last week… and they were right with initial claims falling from 243k (revised up) to 238k (worse than the 235k exp)…

Source: Bloomberg

Remember the prior week’s surge in claims was driven by California…

…well guess which state saw claims plunge last week…

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing claims rose once again, holding above the $1.8mm Maginot Line and back near the highest since Nov 2021. The trend (4wk ma) in initial claims is clear though…

Source: Bloomberg

Is this data just bad enough to help with The Fed’s case for Biden-enabling rate-cuts?