After battering Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and leaving a trail of destruction through the Caribbean that may exceed $5 billion in damages, Beryl, currently a tropical storm, has moved back into warm waters and is expected to restrengthen into hurricane status with landfall impacts expected across northern Mexico or southern Texas on early Monday. 

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Tyler Roys told Bloomberg that Beryl will make landfall around northern Mexico or southern Texas as a Category 1 hurricane between 0400 and 0600 local time Monday. 

Computer models show Beryl’s forecasted track has been shifting slightly north in recent days, which may allow the storm to stay in warmer Gulf waters longer.

“It would not shock me if there is further intensification,” Roys said, adding, “Right now we are with Category 1, but if the trend continues and the track sneaks a little further north, there could potentially be more funny business going on with intensification. It is something we are watching.”

Roys said Beryl will likely bring heavy rains across eastern Texas, an area swamped with rain this year. This will elevate flood risks across the region early next week. 

Another major danger is the storm’s threat to oil and gas leases in the US Federal waters of the Gulf of Mexico and energy infrastructure on shore and inland. 

Beryl’s threat to oil/gas infrastructure (list courtesy of Bloomberg): 

Tropical Storm Beryl’s threat to oil and gas leases in the US Federal waters of the Gulf of Mexico increases as its path shifts north after reaching Yucatan, according to National Hurricane Center data and Bureau of Ocean Energy Management data

Storm could be in path of leases with ~14 million cu. feet/d of natural gas production and ~1,583 b/d of oil and condensate output versus ~6.8 million cu. feet/d of offshore gas output on Thursday.

Storm’s potential path doesn’t pass over any major offshore oil or gas platforms, but is near some

Projection is based on Feb. BOEM production data broken down by lease and platforms within projected cone of storm

Projections are for location of Beryl through weekend and into next week

Beryl threatens some major offshore oil/gas platforms: 

Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, the acting governor while Gov. Greg Abbott traveled overseas, issued a pre-emptive disaster declaration for 40 counties.

“Everyone along the (Texas) coast should be paying attention this storm,” Patrick said, adding, “We hope and we pray for nothing more than a rain event.”

Last week, Beryl was the earliest storm on record to strengthen into a Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic.