President Nicolas Maduro alarmed and riled his enemies as well as Washington and its allies by declaring just ahead of Sunday’s elections: “If you don’t want Venezuela to fall into a bloodbath, into a fratricidal civil war, due to the fascists, let’s ensure the greatest success and greatest victory in the electoral history of our people.”

Many pundits are taking this as a warning that he’ll refuse to give up power in the unlikely event he loses his bid for six more years in office, which would be his third term. While there are eight names total on the ballot as Venezuelans wait in long lines to vote Sunday, 74-year old opposition candidate and former diplomat Edmundo González Urrutia is considered the only real contender who has a chance of defeating Maduro.

González is basically the surrogate candidate for María Corina Machado, who has organized the opposition and has become wildly popular, even recently gaining name recognition abroad and in US media.

Edmundo González Urrutia and Nicolás Maduro vote on Sunday.

Maduro and his United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV) have ruled over the central American country since 2013, after he took over following the death of his mentor, far-left icon Hugo Chavez.

Millions of desperate citizens have already left their country in search of work and opportunities abroad amid a crushed economy and rampant accusations of corruption against Maduro government officials. Millions more may leave if his power is extended for another term.

Polls have seen massive queues since they opened at 6am, but already there are reports of barriers in pro-opposition areas and stories of black-clad, masked men blocking voting stations, as The New York Times has alleged. “The destiny of Venezuela depends on our victory,” Maduro has proclaimed at campaign rallies, while decrying efforts of a hidden imperialist foreign hand to thwart his aims, as well as longtime US-led sanctions.

Both the United States and Brazil have issued messages of “we’re watching closely”:

Asked in a press briefing whether Maduro was likely to rig Sunday’s vote, John Kirby, White House national security spokesperson, said it was difficult to know how the situation would play out but that the U.S. wanted “to make it clear to Mr. Maduro that we’re watching, we’re watching closely.”

Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has also urged Maduro to respect the results, telling international news agencies that he was “scared” by the Venezuelan’s recent remarks, Reuters reported.

Brazil’s president added that Maduro “needs to learn that when you win, you stay; when you lose, you leave.”

Very, very long queues to vote in Venezuela’s election today. Here’s a timelapse #VenezuelaVOTA #venezuela pic.twitter.com/l3jMQ4hZJH

— Catherine Ellis (@Cat_lucy1) July 28, 2024

Some analysts expect some degree of unrest and violence to break out no matter who emerges victorious, with either side set to contest.

“On the basis of their own exit polls, the opposition will probably declare victory and push for regime change, ushering in a period of heightened political tension and uncertainty ahead of the inauguration,” Andre Masuko, a research analyst with the Economist Intelligence Unit, stated to CNBC.

President Nicolas Maduro ahead of Sunday’s elections: “If you don’t want Venezuela to fall into a bloodbath, into a fratricidal civil war, due to the fascists, let’s ensure the greatest success & greatest victory in the electoral history of our people.” pic.twitter.com/rao45c0NIC

— Vera Bergengruen (@VeraMBergen) July 24, 2024

“However, we do not expect the Maduro regime to be overthrown. His strict control over the country’s institutions, including the security forces, the judiciary and the electoral national council (CNE), will be instrumental in helping him to stay in power,” he underscored.

One big unpredictable scenario of huge consequence is whether the US would throw its support behind any opposition allegations claims of widespread election abuse and fraud.

Meanwhile, the usual Neocon suspects in Congress are alleging a ‘stolen’ national election before the ballots are even in…

If the election in #Venezuela today is legitimate Maduro will lose by 40 points

But the election commission that counts the votes is controlled by the Maduro regime and they will do everything they can to try and steal it pic.twitter.com/EhxzGZjb1j

— Marco Rubio (@marcorubio) July 28, 2024

Washington weighing in too forcefully would set the stage for another anti-opposition crackdown by Maduro government security services.