A recession appears imminent, with 19 states already showing signs of economic distress, warns economist Nancy Lazar. These states, which contribute 40% of the US GDP, have seen a 0.5 percentage point rise in unemployment over three months, historically a precursor to nationwide recessions. Lazar points to the delayed effects of Federal Reserve rate hikes and tightened credit as key factors, noting that such conditions typically lead to a hard economic landing.