The Israeli ‘retaliation’ attack against Iran, which occurred in the overnight and early morning hours, appears to be complete, with Israel’s military (IDF) having declared the response “concluded” after locations in three provinces of the Islamic Republic were hit.

Some 100 Israeli warplanes were sent, primarily across Jordanian airspace, for the unprecedented attack which reportedly included strikes on key missile, drone, and other military sites – including air defense installations. However, Iranians are mocking it as if it didn’t even happen, and there’s an emerging consensus among Western pundits that this was remarkably limited in scale. The attack did not involve Iranian nuclear or oil sites, according to Israeli military officials.

Where are the Israeli strikes? Iranians look over the capital after explosions were heard, via Reuters

IDF Spokesman, Daniel Hagari, said overnight – following at least two or three waves of attacks – “I can now confirm that we have concluded the Israeli response to Iran’s attack against Israel. We conducted targeted and precise strikes on military targets in Iran, thwarting immediate threats to the State of Israel.”

And Hagari’s words concluded with the threat of new major escalation if Iran decides to respond militarily, “If the regime in Iran were to make the mistake of beginning a new round of escalation, we will be obligated to respond. All those who threaten the State of Israel and seek to drag the region into wider escalation will pay a heavy price.”

Local reports of explosions near Tehran emerged at around 2:15 local time, with strikes later being reported also in the Karaj, Isfahan and Shiraz areas. Israel’s military said it hit around 20 sites over the several hours across the three provinces.

“If the regime in Iran were to make the mistake of beginning a new round of escalation, we will be obligated to respond,” the Israeli military said.

Israeli media indicated that while the first wave of warplanes took out anti-air defense sites, follow-up waves targeted ballistic missile and drone manufacturing facilities, as well as launch sites. Israeli officials say the operation sought to degrade Iran’s capability to launch another attack such as occurred on April 14 and October 1.

Footage shows Iran’s air defence systems intercepting projectiles in the early hours of Saturday in Tehran.

Israel’s military announced that it had launched an attack on Iranian military targets as explosions were heard in the city. pic.twitter.com/KtUf0vsBZJ

— Middle East Eye (@MiddleEastEye) October 26, 2024

The operation was declared complete within a few hours of reports of initial explosions: 

The Israeli military said at 6 a.m. that the assault had been completed, with “all goals achieved” and all aircraft returning safely home. It dubbed the campaign “Days of Repentance,” a reference to the recent Yom Kippur holiday. It said dozens of IAF aircraft, including fighter jets, refuelers and spy planes, participated in the “complex” operation some 1,600 kilometers from Israel.

Iran has only confirmed that “limited damage” resulted at some bases and asserted that its air defenses countered many of the attacks, a narrative which has been rejected by Israel.

Israel’s air force touted that it gave it pilots “wider freedom of aerial action in Iran” – and yet still the whole operation looked significantly less intense than Iran’s Oct. 1st attack on Israel.

Handout photo of PM Netanyahu meeting with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and IDF commanders in the bunker below the Kirya military base in Tel Aviv.

The reality is that air-to-surface missiles, which Israel focused on in its assault, don’t tend to be as destructive or as large in impact compared to ballistic missiles. It remains that Israel’s surface-to-surface ballistic missile capabilities are not as established as its air-launched capabilities.

There are vague reports out of Syria that some locations inside the country were hit during the broader Iran assault, and possibly including sites in Iraq as well.

Some pro-Iran and pro-Syria accounts mocked the quite limited attack, calling it a “nothingburger” as it unfolded, or else saying the Israelis merely started some brush fires 1,000 miles away in Iran.

Iranian social media accounts are widely mocking the Israeli operation:

Many people mocked Israel’s failed attack on Iran by making videos or memes. You can also make some contents and share them with us in the comments to this post. We will repost 2 of the best. pic.twitter.com/wYcaSMsggE

— Iran Military (@IRIran_Military) October 26, 2024

Iranian state TV reported at one point that “The loud blasts heard around Tehran were related to the activation of the air defense system against the actions of Zionist regime which attacked three locations outside of Tehran city.”

However, an Israeli official told Ynet news that the Iranian claim of interception was “a lie. It was a total failure, [there were] zero interceptions“—as reported in Times of Israel.

While radar shows that airspace was totally cleared over the Islamic Republic, state media still tried to claim that the country’s main international airports, including in Tehran, were operating as normal.

Via Flightradar24 website, early on October 26, 2024, displaying commercial flights around Iran’s airspace during Israeli strikes. AFP

The Quincy Institute’s Trita Parsi comments as follows…

The Israeli attack is over, but the outcome remains unclear. Tehran is downplaying it – even mocking it – which may be more reflective of their desire to de-escalate than a true assessment of the damage Israel inflicted on Iran. Just as Israel kept the damage of Iran’s Oct 1 strikes secret, Iran will likely not disclose the full picture of Israel’s strike. But if Iran chooses to exercise restraint, as it did after Israel’s limited strikes in April, then this chapter may be closed, yet the conflict will remain very much alive.

A prominent pro-“resistance axis” account on X, Hadi Nasrallah, had this to say: “So, after Iran totally roasted Israel’s military bases and airports putting them on blast in front of the whole world, Israel thought it’d be badass to send some pops to Tehran, like that’s gonna distract us from their their crushing losses in Lebanon a day before.”

On Saturday, Iranian state media is full of headlines outright mocking the somewhat muted Israeli attack…

Indeed, it seems that after taking this long to telegraph its response well over three weeks since Oct.1st, Israel’s attack was more about theater than inflicting real and lasting damage on Iran. This was as many expected by design, appearing to really be all about sending a message while seeking to carefully avoid escalation. There are even reports saying that Israel notified Tehran ahead of time of the impending strikes, saying the Iranians must not hit back. The hawks are surely disappointed.