Following softer-than-expected inflation data, bond traders are increasingly betting on the possibility of a larger-than-usual 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. This shift is evident in the federal funds futures market, particularly in October contracts, which have seen record trading volumes. While these contracts already fully price in a standard quarter-point cut for the September 18 meeting, the increased buying at higher price levels suggests growing expectations for a more aggressive move. Swap contracts now indicate a full quarter-point cut in September and a total of 60 basis points of easing by year-end, reflecting a significant change in market sentiment regarding the Fed’s monetary policy trajectory.