Egypt has just issued a rare and oddly specific NOTAM, or Notice to Air Missions alert, instructing all of its airlines to avoid Iranian airspace for a 3-hour period in the overnight and early morning hours of Thursday. Some other countries have since followed in issuing similar do not fly alerts, including the UK.

“All Egyptian carriers shall avoid overflying Tehran. No flight plan will be accepted overflying such territory,” the notice says. Specifically the instructions are valid from 01:00 to 04:00GMT (or 9pm to 12am US Eastern). Will the big expected Iranian retaliation be tonight? Zero hour may be approaching fast.

Tehran file image

NOTAMS alert aircraft pilots to potential hazards along flight paths, and are internationally recognized among aviation authorities.

Reuters has picked up on and reported the NOTAM as well, saying based on Egyptian government sources that Cairo was notified by Iranian authorities that airlines should avoid traversing Iranian airspace due to overnight “military exercises”. 

According to the citation in Reuters:

“Based on a report from Iranian authorities to all civil aviation companies, flights over Iranian airspace are to be avoided,” the unnamed official was quoted as saying.

Many airlines are revising their schedules to avoid Iranian and Lebanese airspace while also calling off flights to Israel and Lebanon as many fear a possible broader conflict after the killing of senior members of militant groups Hamas and Hezbollah.

A flight risk monitor identified as OPSGROUP has further told the same publication that “Such a NOTAM from Egypt is very unusual.”

The aviation industry group explained further that “It is possible that this is an indicator of an Iranian response to Israel, and in turn a potentially large set of air space disruptions – at the same time, there may be another reason.”

BREAKING: IRAN TO ATTACK ISRAEL TONIGHT?

Iran warns all commercial air carriers to avoid its airspace, signaling a possible attack on Israel in the coming hours.

The overflight restriction is effective from 9pm-12am ET

Egypt issued a NOTAM earlier for the exact same time. pic.twitter.com/NX7xC15UnX

— Sulaiman Ahmed (@ShaykhSulaiman) August 7, 2024

Iran on Wednesday had called an emergency meeting of the 57-member Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), which met in the Saudi city of Jeddah. 

An OIC statement said the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil on July 31st risks sparking a wider war. “This heinous act serves only to escalate the existing tensions potentially leading to a wider conflict that could involve the entire region,” the OIC chair said. Haniyeh’s killing “will not quell the Palestinian cause but rather it amplifies it, underscoring the urgency for justice and human rights for the Palestinian people,” it added.

Amid several days of an anticipated major Iranian response against Israel, once it was known earlier in the week that the Islamic Cooperation council meeting had been called for Wednesday, most analysts took that as a sign that ballistic missiles wouldn’t be flying at least until then. But with the meeting now concluded, tonight could be the night.