Traditional recession indicators in the U.S. are proving unreliable in the current economic climate, largely due to the unique disruptions caused by the pandemic.

Despite signals such as declines in temporary employment and an inverted yield curve, which historically predicted recessions, no significant downturn has occurred. The pandemic has fundamentally altered labor market dynamics, with businesses less reliant on temporary workers.

Additionally, although GDP contracted for two consecutive quarters in 2022, the broader economy has remained resilient. This has led to skepticism about the current relevance of these recession indicators.