The Kremlin has announced that its forces thwarted a major ground assault from Ukraine forces into Russia’s southwestern Kursk region. President Vladimir Putin called it a “large-scale provocation” which is being defended against for a second day. While the Ukrainian side has remained silent, that fighting in the area of the incursion has raged for two days straight does indeed suggest an attack which is large in scope.

Putin further described the “indiscriminate shelling of civilian buildings, residential houses, ambulances with different types of weapons” amid the assault, and called an emergency meeting of his top defense and security officials. The military is further sending assistance to the Kursk region, which lies over 300 miles from Moscow.

Russian state media has detailed that the cross-border assault began at 5:30am Tuesday morning and involved in initial wave of up to 1,000 militants. Kremlin sources further say that the Ukrainian side suffered at least 315 casualties, including at least 100 killed and 215 wounded.

The chief of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, in a briefing given to Putin said the goal of the Ukrainian operation was to take over the Sudzhinsky district of Kursk Region.

There are meanwhile breaking reports the Ukrainian Armed Forces have captured the Sudzha gas measurement station, which is in the center of Sudzhinsky district, according to source RybarEU. European NatGas prices jumped on the news (to their highest since Dec 2023)…

EU Natural Gas

Throughout the war there have been at least two other significant cross-border ground raids involving Ukrainian paramilitaries, but if the numbers are confirmed, this one is by far the largest.

…And clearly the operation had a specifically geopolitical goal related to Russia’s hold over European gas (and as evidenced by the following chart, European gas prices are surging relative to US gas)…

In this case, the incursion appears to have been launched utilizing Ukrainian army regular forces and heavy equipment, with the possibility that West-supplied weapons systems were used.

“Ukraine also lost 54 armored vehicles, including seven tanks,” Gen. Gerasimov’s briefing noted.

Via AP

There does appear to be significant damage and some civilian casualties in the Kursk Region as a result, as Associated Press reports:

The head of the region urged residents to donate blood due to the intense fighting. “In the last 24 hours, our region has been heroically resisting attacks” by Ukrainian fighters, acting Gov. Alexei Smirnov said on Telegram, adding that all emergency services were on high alert.

The same sources is reporting that the Ukrainian shelling has killed at least two people — a paramedic and an ambulance driver — and wounded 24, based on a Russian foreign ministry briefing.

Ukraine attack on Russia’s #Kursk Region

Fifteen people are taking refuge in the Svyato-Nikolaevsky Belogorsky Monastery in the Gornal district of Sudzha. The building is under constant shelling. pic.twitter.com/vSltZDrjqh

— Russian Market (@runews) August 7, 2024

Thousands of Russians have reportedly fled the assault, and the region is still in chaos and under constant shelling.

Ukraine forces have reportedly seized the gas measuring station “Sudzha” on the western outskirts of the city of the same name. Gas is pumped there for transit to Europe.

developing…