Hurricanes are a fact of life for people living along America’s Atlantic Coast. Of course, the risk of a hurricane making landfall varies depending where people live along that expansive coastline.

This infographic, via Visual Capitalist’s Nick Routley, uses data from the Tropical Cyclone Impact Probabilities database at Colorado State University to show county-level risk (the red parts) of a hurricane impact, along with population centers along the coast (the spikes).

Potential Hurricane Hotspots

While a hurricane can make landfall anywhere along the coast, there are places where the probability of that happening is higher in 2024.

Below is the full list of counties and states, which includes other countries in North America as well, including Mexico (which, at the time of publishing, is being battered by Hurricane Beryl).

State
County
Hurricanes (1880-2020)
Avg Probability of Hurricane Impact (2024)
Alabama
 
46
43%
Alabama
Baldwin
28
29%
Alabama
Mobile
28
29%
Connecticut
 
11
13%
Connecticut
Fairfield
9
10%
Connecticut
Middlesex
10
11%
Connecticut
New Haven
11
13%
Connecticut
New London
10
11%
Delaware
 
9
10%
Delaware
Kent
4
5%
Delaware
New Castle
1
1%
Delaware
Sussex
9
10%
Florida
 
115
75%
Florida
Bay
26
27%
Florida
Brevard
26
27%
Florida
Broward
36
35%
Florida
Charlotte
26
27%
Florida
Citrus
26
27%
Florida
Collier
34
34%
Florida
Dixie
19
21%
Florida
Duval
22
23%
Florida
Escambia
27
28%
Florida
Flagler
22
23%
Florida
Franklin
21
23%
Florida
Gulf
23
24%
Florida
Hernando
26
27%
Florida
Hillsborough
27
28%
Florida
Indian River
26
27%
Florida
Jefferson
14
16%
Florida
Lee
28
29%
Florida
Levy
22
23%
Florida
Manatee
28
29%
Florida
Martin
27
28%
Florida
Miami-Dade
37
36%
Florida
Monroe
50
46%
Florida
Nassau
20
22%
Florida
Okaloosa
24
25%
Florida
Palm Beach
34
34%
Florida
Pasco
26
27%
Florida
Pinellas
26
27%
Florida
Santa Rosa
25
26%
Florida
Sarasota
26
27%
Florida
St. Johns
23
24%
Florida
St. Lucie
23
24%
Florida
Taylor
16
18%
Florida
Volusia
26
27%
Florida
Wakulla
18
20%
Florida
Walton
26
27%
Georgia
 
51
46%
Georgia
Bryan
21
23%
Georgia
Camden
18
20%
Georgia
Chatham
22
23%
Georgia
Glynn
15
17%
Georgia
Liberty
22
23%
Georgia
McIntosh
21
23%
Louisiana
 
68
56%
Louisiana
Cameron
23
24%
Louisiana
Iberia
25
26%
Louisiana
Jefferson
30
31%
Louisiana
Lafourche
33
33%
Louisiana
Orleans
23
24%
Louisiana
Plaquemines
35
35%
Louisiana
St. Bernard
33
33%
Louisiana
St. Mary
27
28%
Louisiana
St. Tammany
24
25%
Louisiana
Terrebonne
34
34%
Louisiana
Vermilion
24
25%
Maine
 
10
11%
Maine
Cumberland
3
4%
Maine
Hancock
6
7%
Maine
Knox
6
7%
Maine
Lincoln
3
4%
Maine
Sagadahoc
3
4%
Maine
Waldo
3
4%
Maine
Washington
6
7%
Maine
York
5
6%
Maryland
 
16
18%
Maryland
Anne Arundel
1
1%
Maryland
Baltimore
1
1%
Maryland
Baltimore City
1
1%
Maryland
Calvert
2
2%
Maryland
Cecil
1
1%
Maryland
Dorchester
5
6%
Maryland
Harford
0
0%
Maryland
Kent
0
0%
Maryland
Queen Anne’s
1
1%
Maryland
Somerset
9
10%
Maryland
St. Mary’s
3
4%
Maryland
Talbot
1
1%
Maryland
Wicomico
6
7%
Maryland
Worcester
13
15%
Massachusetts
 
22
23%
Massachusetts
Barnstable
13
15%
Massachusetts
Dukes
11
13%
Massachusetts
Essex
7
8%
Massachusetts
Nantucket
14
16%
Massachusetts
Norfolk
7
8%
Massachusetts
Plymouth
10
11%
Massachusetts
Suffolk
7
8%
Mississippi
 
47
43%
Mississippi
Hancock
22
23%
Mississippi
Harrison
26
27%
Mississippi
Jackson
24
25%
New Hampshire
 
8
9%
New Hampshire
Rockingham
5
6%
New Jersey
 
10
11%
New Jersey
Atlantic
10
11%
New Jersey
Burlington
8
9%
New Jersey
Cape May
10
11%
New Jersey
Essex
4
5%
New Jersey
Hudson
4
5%
New Jersey
Middlesex
5
6%
New Jersey
Monmouth
9
10%
New Jersey
Ocean
10
11%
New Jersey
Salem
2
2%
New Jersey
Union
4
5%
New York
 
14
16%
New York
Bronx
7
8%
New York
Kings
6
7%
New York
Nassau
8
9%
New York
New York
9
10%
New York
Queens
8
9%
New York
Richmond
7
8%
New York
Suffolk
12
14%
New York
Westchester
7
8%
North Carolina
 
68
56%
North Carolina
Beaufort
22
23%
North Carolina
Bertie
15
17%
North Carolina
Brunswick
32
32%
North Carolina
Camden
20
22%
North Carolina
Carteret
46
43%
North Carolina
Chowan
17
19%
North Carolina
Craven
31
31%
North Carolina
Currituck
22
23%
North Carolina
Dare
45
42%
North Carolina
Gates
12
14%
North Carolina
Hertford
11
13%
North Carolina
Hyde
45
42%
North Carolina
New Hanover
32
32%
North Carolina
Onslow
35
35%
North Carolina
Pamlico
31
31%
North Carolina
Pasquotank
19
21%
North Carolina
Pender
35
35%
North Carolina
Perquimans
18
20%
North Carolina
Tyrrell
26
27%
North Carolina
Washington
19
21%
Rhode Island
 
11
13%
Rhode Island
Bristol
8
9%
Rhode Island
Kent
8
9%
Rhode Island
Newport
10
11%
Rhode Island
Providence
9
10%
Rhode Island
Washington/South
9
10%
South Carolina
 
48
44%
South Carolina
Beaufort
22
23%
South Carolina
Charleston
33
33%
South Carolina
Colleton
26
27%
South Carolina
Georgetown
27
28%
South Carolina
Horry
32
32%
South Carolina
Jasper
21
23%
Texas
 
64
54%
Texas
Aransas
16
18%
Texas
Brazoria
25
26%
Texas
Calhoun
20
22%
Texas
Cameron
20
22%
Texas
Chambers
24
25%
Texas
Galveston
29
30%
Texas
Harris
24
25%
Texas
Jefferson
25
26%
Texas
Kenedy
21
23%
Texas
Kleberg
19
21%
Texas
Matagorda
27
28%
Texas
Nueces
21
23%
Texas
Refugio
14
16%
Texas
San Patricio
17
19%
Texas
Willacy
19
21%
Virginia
 
31
31%
Virginia
Accomack
13
15%
Virginia
Gloucester
7
8%
Virginia
Hampton
12
14%
Virginia
Lancaster
5
6%
Virginia
Mathews
7
8%
Virginia
Middlesex
5
6%
Virginia
Newport News
8
9%
Virginia
Norfolk
12
14%
Virginia
Northampton
13
15%
Virginia
Northumberland
5
6%
Virginia
Poquoson
9
10%
Virginia
Portsmouth
10
11%
Virginia
Suffolk
11
13%
Virginia
Virginia Beach
18
20%
Virginia
York
9
10%
Canada
 
48
44%
New Brunswick
 
11
13%
Newfoundland and Labrador
 
24
25%
Nova Scotia
 
44
41%
Prince Edward Island
 
9
10%
Mexico
 
83
64%
Campeche
 
33
33%
Quintana Roo
 
57
50%
Tabasco
 
8
9%
Tamaulipas
 
43
41%
Veracruz
 
32
32%
Yucatan
 
43
41%
Anguilla
 
28
29%
Antigua and Barbuda
 
23
24%
Aruba
 
7
8%
Bahamas, The
 
106
72%
Barbados
 
9
10%
Belize
 
30
31%
Bermuda
 
42
40%
Bonaire
 
5
6%
Cabo Verde
 
4
5%
Cayman Islands
 
37
36%
Costa Rica
 
3
4%
Cuba
 
102
71%
Curacao
 
6
7%
Dominica
 
21
23%
Dominican Republic
 
61
52%
Grenada
 
10
11%
Guadeloupe
 
28
29%
Guatemala
 
23
24%
Haiti
 
42
40%
Honduras
 
46
43%
Jamaica
 
36
35%
Martinique
 
17
19%
Montserrat
 
22
23%
Nicaragua
 
25
26%
Panama
 
1
1%
Puerto Rico
 
38
37%
Saba
 
23
24%
Saint Kitts and Nevis
 
32
32%
Saint Lucia
 
15
17%
Saint Martin
 
23
24%
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines
 
13
15%
Sint Eustatius
 
23
24%
Sint Maarten
 
23
24%
Trinidad and Tobago
 
3
4%
Turks and Caicos
 
32
32%
UK Virgin Islands
 
35
35%
US Virgin Islands
 
30
31%

The counties that make up the southern tip of Florida have the highest risk of a major hurricane impact. Monroe County, which includes Key West, has a 46% chance of a hurricane impact, and a 27% chance of a major hurricane impact.

Another potential hurricane hotspot is the Outer Banks region of North Carolina. Three counties that include the Outer Banks find themselves in the top five ranking for hurricane impact risk. Unlike Florida though, the risk of a major hurricane impact is much lower.

The three counties along the coast near Houston, Texas, have between 25–30% risk of a hurricane impact. Galveston is no stranger to hurricane activity. The constant threat of storms making impact was one reason Houston—which is further inland—grew to be the much bigger city.