With 98.42% of votes counted as this is written, Moldova’s Sunday referendum on whether the country should join the European Union teeters at a near-tie, with 50.08% voting Yes and 49.92% voting No — a difference of just 2,285 votes out of 1.46 million cast. The exceedingly close count defies polling that raised expectations for a comfortable win for Yes, and has the incumbent president — who herself is headed for a surprise runoff for her own job — accusing Russia of interfering in the election.  

With a population of about 3 million, the republic of Moldova is wedged between Romania and Ukraine. Most citizens speak Romanian, but there’s a significant Russian-speaking minority. Consistent with that combination of location and demographics, the country’s sentiments and policies have swung back and forth between pro-Russian and pro-Western. Since 2020 — which brought the election of current President Maia Sandu — a decidedly pro-Western slant has prevailed. 

Complicating the geopolitical picture is the slender breakaway republic of Transnistria, which lies along the east bank of the Dniester River, wedged between Ukraine and Moldova. While not recognized by any other state, it enjoys the economic and political support of Russia, along with the presence of some 1,500 Russian soldiers.  

Russia has about 1,500 soldiers positioned in Transnistria, which broke away from Moldova in 1990 (via BBC)

Sunday’s razor-close EU referendum and lackluster showing by Sandu seemingly signal the country’s political pendulum is swinging again. Sandu only received 41% of the vote, while her principal opponent, former Prosecutor General Alexandr Stoianoglo, scored 27%. With opposition expected to consolidate in the Nov. 3 runoff, Sandu appears to be in serious jeopardy of losing the presidency.   

Sandu responded to the results with accusations of an “unprecedented assault on our country’s freedom and democracy,” blaming Russia for working to rally opposition to EU membership.  The also claimed there had been “a fraud of unprecedented scale,” in the form of an alleged scheme to buy 300,000 No votes.  

As the election approached, Sandu’s government accused Israeli-born, fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor of meddling in the election. Convicted of fraud and theft over a scam that drained $1 billion from Moldovan banks, Shor was sentenced to 7.5 years in prison in absentia. Moldova is now accusing the 37-year-old of funneling money from Russia into a vote-buying effort. When accused of his financial crimes, Shor first fled to and lived in Israel before moving to Russia.

Anti-government forces staged a series of demonstrations in fall 2023, calling for President Sandu’s resignation and relief from higher fuel costs (Vladislav Culiomza/Reuters)

The BBC said it had observed an apparent indication of just such a vote-buying effort: 

A BBC producer heard a woman who had just dropped her ballot in the transparent box ask an election monitor where she would get paid. Outside, we asked directly whether she had been offered cash to vote and she admitted it without qualms. She was angry that a man who had sent her to the polling station was no longer answering her calls. “He tricked me!” she said. She would not reply when asked who she had voted for.

A Yes victory on the referendum wouldn’t immediately put Moldova in the EU. Rather, it would amend the country’s constitution to declare EU membership is a goal of the republic, which declared its independence in 1991 in the wake of the Soviet Union’s collapse. Sandu has set 2030 as a goal for accession to the EU. 

The set of dynamics in play — election results that defy expectations of an establishment victory, followed by accusations of Russian interference — echoes what’s been repeatedly been observed both in the United States and Western Europe in recent years. On top of that, Moldovan authorities also censored online content that they characterized as disinformation.

That’s not the only similarity: The referendum count had No with a narrow lead down the stretch, only to see Yes pull ahead as absentee ballots were tallied — many cast by pro-EU “diaspora” Moldovans who don’t even live in the country. 

Everywhere the same.

Moldova finally did the democracy trick at 97,66% counted. 🤪

The longest counting stations always ends up in the desired results. This could be surprisingly int. observed in many elections since few years. #Moldova #MoldovaElections pic.twitter.com/V6VoKwCyez

— Gemüsegurke (@gemusegurke) October 21, 2024