With the world on edge over the shape of Israel’s retaliation to Iran for recent ballistic missile assault, which just like in April was performative as it damaged absolutely nothing and killed just one person, a Palestinian, earlier we learned that Biden – who may or may not still be president – is opposing an attack on Iran’s nuclear weapons sites, while also informing Iran not to attack its mid-east bases. And yet, Israel has to do something, which is why moments ago oil surged news, that when Biden was asked by reporters outside the White House if he would support Israel striking Iran’s oil facilities, he said “we’re discussing that.”

Crude oil prices spiked on the news, having already jumped about 5% in the past three days.

As reported previously, until now, the market has been largely unaffected by escalating tensions in the region as shipments of physical oil barrels haven’t been interrupted, and Goldman noted that oil prices do not incorporate any geopolitical risk premium. However, any disruption to supplies from the region would drive oil much higher, a major risk for the US with elections just about a month away.

While it’s still unclear how Israel will respond to Iran, what we do know is that the Persian Gulf country is the third-largest oil producer in OPEC. Crude supplies amounting to about a fifth of global demand and a large amount of liquefied natural gas pass through the Strait of Hormuz along the Iranian coast. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar send shipments through the key waterway.

Here’s a map showing Iran’s major energy installations, including oil and gas fields, pipelines, refineries and storage terminals:

In his discussion of how Israel may retaliate, Rabobank’s Michael Every said yesterday that “the list of Israeli targets proportionate to their escalation vs. Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis is short” with oil infrastructure the most likely target.

Military radar systems would leave Iran open for IDF air attacks. Iran’s nuclear program would require US assistance. The simplest target is oil infrastructure to remove the earnings paying for its and its proxies’ weapons, and to destabilise the regime. Yet Iranian state Telegram chatgroups, and an Iranian professor of literature(!) interviewed by the BBC, say if their oil is hit, they will burn Saudi, Kuwaiti, UAE, Bahraini, and Azerbaijani oil – an escalation threat we have been flagging as a fat tail risk since immediately after October 7. (Note Qatar, a key supplier of LNG to the EU, is absent from this list despite ostensibly being a major US ally…) As such, the US might also oppose this move: but that doesn’t mean it won’t happen. Of course, Israel hitting Iran too hard could mean war, dragging others in; even so, it likely sees more risk in doing too little with its next strike than doing too much.

In other words, while the US backs a “proportionate” Israeli strike on Iran for its recent missile attack to avoid escalation, this is not Israel’s strategic doctrine, and it’s determined to cause Iran political and economic pain, implying nuclear or oil targets. The US wants military ones which won’t stop escalation and logically still end up with nuclear and oil, with a less propitious backdrop for Israel. Note: Jerusalem ignored US prohibitions when acting against nuclear programs in Osirak in Iraq in 1981 and Deir-ez-Zor in Syria in 2007 and deliberately didn’t inform the White House of its recent attacks vs. Hamas and Hezbollah in advance. In other words, a US “Don’t” carries little weight in proportion to what it once did, and markets might want to bear that in mind.

Guess Iran wasn’t scared by Kamala saying “don’t.”

Who could’ve guessed? pic.twitter.com/HQobJsGApD

— John Hasson (@SonofHas) October 1, 2024

Summary: Biden is now boxed in. Either he puts taxpayer money where his diplomatic mouth is, and sides with Israel in attacking Iran, sending the price of oil and gas soaring and crushing Kamala’s election odds, or confirm he is a puppet of the Iran regime, which should remain untouchable until the elections to keep oil prices lower, rising a unilateral attack by Israel anyway, demonstrating to the world just how irrelevant he has become.