The United States is hosting this year’s major annual NATO Summit in Washington DC on July 9,10, and 11. Heads of state, foreign ministers, and diplomats from across Europe will be in attendance, as will of course President Joe Biden. 

A big question that remains is how far the alliance will go in encouraging Ukraine’s ambitions to join. Currently the US is pushing the ambiguous language of offering Kiev a “bridge” to NATO while demanding reforms especially in the area of corruption. Zelensky is not happy, given that not even a timeline for membership appears to be on the table.

Still, there are enough hawks among Western leaders to present the possibility of launching Ukraine on an ‘irreversible’ path to membership, which many observers fear will only eventually trigger WW3 with Russia. 

Days ago, and just around the corner from the summit’s start, dozens of foreign policy experts have issued a letter which sounds the alarm on the question of advancing Ukrainian membership. The group is warning that should Kiev ever be admitted, it would trigger NATO’s Article 5, and require Western states to enter a nuclear-armed conflict with Russia.

“The closer NATO comes to promising that Ukraine will join the alliance once the war ends, the greater the incentive for Russia to keep fighting the war,” the letter, signed by over 60 analysts, reads. “The challenges Russia poses can be managed without bringing Ukraine into NATO.”

The letter argues that encouraging NATO membership only plays into Putin’s narrative, and in the end ensures “turning Ukraine into the site of a prolonged showdown between the world’s two leading nuclear powers.”

At one point the group says that advancing Ukraine’s membership presents the risk of the “unraveling of NATO itself”. According to a section from the letter [emphasis ZH]:

Some claim that the act of bringing Ukraine into NATO would deter Russia from ever invading Ukraine again. That is wishful thinking. Since Russia began invading Ukraine in 2014, NATO Allies have demonstrated through their actions that they do not believe the stakes of the conflict, while significant, justify the price of war.

If Ukraine were to join NATO, Russia would have reason to doubt the credibility of NATO’s security guarantee — and would gain an opportunity to test and potentially rupture the alliance. The result could be a direct NATO-Russia war or the unraveling of NATO itself.

Below is the letter in full, followed by the list of signatories, which was first reported and posted online by Politico…