Tesla shares are dipping heading into the cash open on Wednesday after the company reported 462,890 total deliveries during the third quarter.

Tesla reported 462,890 deliveries and 469,796 vehicles produced in Q3 2024. Analysts, based on FactSet StreetAccount estimates, had expected 463,310 deliveries for the quarter ending September 30. 

Though Tesla doesn’t define “deliveries” in its financials, it’s seen as the closest metric to units sold and is a key figure for Wall Street. A year ago, Tesla posted 435,059 deliveries and 430,488 vehicles produced, while last quarter it reported 443,956 deliveries and production of 410,831 units.

There was even a whisper number of 472,000 based on VIN data, which is why shares may be dipping. 

Prior to the report, Piper Sandler’s Alexander Potter had raised his delivery estimate to 459,000 EVs for Q3 and 1.75 million for the year, slightly below consensus but optimistic about Tesla’s performance in China, Yahoo Finance wrote this week. 

Barclays’ Dan Levy projects over 470,000 units in Q3, citing global EV sales and August data from China. “Our delivery estimate implies volume up ~6% sequentially and ~8% year-over-year,” Levy noted. “We believe a beat could drive further stock strength into Robotaxi Day.”

Wedbush’s Dan Ives expects sales and profitability to improve. “Price cuts are mostly in the rear view mirror, removing a margin overhang…we believe gross margins should finally start to rebound in 3Q,” Ives stated.

S&P Global Mobility reports Tesla sold over 5,000 Cybertrucks in July, bringing year-to-date sales to 17,722, according to Yahoo Finance.

Deutsche Bank projects Q3 sales to reach 13,500 units. Although just 3% of total sales, the Cybertruck’s growth could impact whether Tesla meets overall delivery targets.

For now, the bigger catalyst could be the company’s October 10 robotaxi event, which has driven shares up 20% in a month. More significant news might also come from the company’s Optimus robotics program.