By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

“Whether he is trying to influence the election, I don’t know but I am not counting on that,” said President Biden, referring to Netanyahu. “No administration has done more to help Israel than I have,” continued America’s Commander-in-Chief, defensively, politically vulnerable on this issue, on his way out.

Speculation swirled. Would Bibi respond to Iran’s missile attack by taking out the Ayatollah’s oil fields or nuclear facilities? Perhaps both?

And with the bear market collapse in Mullah pager usage, how would the Mossad neuter Iran’s leadership? Only Netanyahu knew.

This of course is the world we now live in. Long gone are the days when polite central bank governing boards determined the arc of world history. The age of the politician has returned.

“The Israelis have not concluded what they are going to do in terms of a strike. That’s under discussion,” said Biden. “If I were in their shoes, I’d be thinking about other alternatives than striking oilfields,” added the president, having not spoken directly with Israel’s leader since August.

An oilfield strike would lift oil prices, gasoline, inflation. And who knows, the Ayatollah might then strike Saudi oilfields, which would take crude well above $125/barrel. This would surely cost Harris the election.

But the Mullahs don’t want Trump II. Bibi sure does. MBS too.

And his Saudi forces could surely be doing more to take out the Houthis, who attacked two more ships this week. But the Ayatollah’s proxies continue to operate in the vacuum. Disrupting world trade, providing a glimpse of what our future will look like without overwhelmingly strong, fully engaged, principled US leadership.

And in this new political age, no one outside a few leaders with their fingers on the triggers can accurately predict what will happen next.

The only thing that seems probable is that most of what will unfold will occur between now and when America elects its next president. November 5th.