With mortgage rates tumbling (before the war started) and a top-down push for affordability, Housing Starts printed better than expected for January while the more forward-looking Building Permits disappointed, falling more than expected.

Starts rose 7.2k in preliminary January data (far greater than the 4.5% MoM decline expected while Permits plunged 5.4% MoM (worse than the 3.1% decline expected)…

Source: Bloomberg

This pushed the SAAR totals for Starts to their highest since Dec 2024, but Building Permits fell to their lowest since Aug 2025…

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, Multi-Family Permits plunged 13.5% MoM (biggest drop since June 2023) while Multi-Family Starts soared 29.1% MoM…

Source: Bloomberg

The lowest mortgage rate since Aug 2022 likely helped spark homebuilder appetite to start building…

A mixed bag overall, and tough to project given the impact of surging Treasury yields on the mortgage rates currently.