BCA Research’s chief global strategist, Peter Berezin, predicts a 32% drop in the S&P 500 by 2025 due to an impending U.S. recession. Berezin argues that the Federal Reserve’s delayed approach to cutting interest rates will fail to prevent an economic downturn, which he expects to begin in late 2024 or early 2025. This bearish outlook challenges the prevailing “soft-landing” narrative, suggesting that rising unemployment and tightened credit conditions will curb consumer spending, exacerbating the recession. Berezin anticipates that the Fed will only significantly loosen financial conditions once the recession becomes evident, by which time it may be too late to avert a market crash.