Today saw the quiet (short squeeze higher) before the storm of risk catalysts ahead this week (including 41% of SPX earnings and a handful of key macro data – JOLTS, GDP, PCE, NFP). But October Dallas Fed manufacturing activity was better than expected today, adding to momentum in the Citi US Macro Surprise Index…

Source: Bloomberg

The ‘good’ data sent rate-cut expectations (hawkishly) lower with 2024 now a coin toss between 1 and 2 25bp cuts and 2025 down to pricing in just 3 cuts…

Source: Bloomberg

Goldman’s trading desk noted that market volumes are down -5% and top of book depth is only $8.4mm with a “squeezy price action” evident in stocks: Bitcoin Equities (GSCBBTC1, +7.5%); China ADRs (GSXUCADR, +4.6%);  Non-Profitable Tech (GSXUNPTC, +3%) & Most Short Rolling (GSCBMSAL, +2.8%) – third major squeeze day in a row…

Source: Bloomberg

Mag7 stocks ended very marginally higher on the day after a short-squeeze open.

Source: Bloomberg

Bear in mind that today marks the first day of the estimated open window period for corporate buybacks with ~50% in open window today. We have already seen a number of companies start entering into new 10b5-1 plans over the past week.

Taking all that into consideration, Small Caps were the days best performer (squeeze) while Nasdaq was the laggard (barely holding on to unchanged). The S&P lagged The Dow…

VIX was lower today but the vol term structure for the S&P 500 is very much anticipating some malarkey over the next couple of weeks…

Source: Bloomberg

Bond yields pushed higher with the ‘Trump Trade’…

Source: Bloomberg

With yields up 3-4bps across the curve – but it was a wild day in bond-land with TSYs bid across Europe and then offered during most of the US session…

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended the day unchanged after extending Friday’s gains, falling back then inching back up to unch…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin surged back up within a few ticks of $70,000…

Source: Bloomberg

Crude prices were clubbed like a baby seal today as the Iran-Israel theatrics seemed to calm traders minds and erase geopolitical risk premium….

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, USA Sovereign risk continues to rise quietly behind the scenes…

Source: Bloomberg

…as the world bids on the ultimate ‘insurance’ bet into an election surprise (red or blue sweep)…