In a strategic move which puts pressure on Ukraine in response to its ongoing Kursk incursion into Russia, Belarus has built-up its troops along parts of its southern border with Ukraine.

A Sunday statement by Ukraine’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs demanded that Belarus pull back its forces or risk further escalation and “tragic mistakes”.

The statement described that under the guise of exercises, “a significant number of personnel, including Special Operations Forces, weapons, and military equipment” are present at the border. It additionally named the presence of former Wagner PMC forces.

Via BBC

“We warn Belarusian officials not to make tragic mistakes for their country under Moscow’s pressure,” the Ukrainian foreign ministry continued. “We emphasize that Ukraine has never taken and is not going to take any unfriendly actions against the Belarusian people,” it added.

Belarus and Russia are treaty allies which form a “Union State” – and Moscow utilized Belarusian territory to kick off its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine territory. President Putin last year also ordered the positioning of tactical nuclear warheads at Belarusian bases, overseen by Russian officers. Both countries are under heavy US/EU-led sanctions.

Alarmingly, Kiev has also called out Belarus for threatening nuclear safety, given the proximity of the alleged force build-up, per Politico:

Ukraine’s statement noted the Belarusian troop deployment was concentrated in an area near the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, warning: “Conducting exercises in the border area and in close proximity to the nuclear power facility… poses a threat to the national security of Ukraine and global security in general.”

Kiev’s fresh statement concluded: “We warn that in case of a violation of Ukraine’s state border by Belarus, our state will take all necessary measures to exercise the right to self-defense guaranteed by the UN Charter.”

“Consequently, all troop concentrations, military facilities, and supply routes in Belarus will become legitimate targets for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.”

Ukraine and its Western partners have been monitoring the presence of Wagner mercenaries in Belarus and in foreign lands…

Russia’s Wagner mercenary group said on Monday that it only operated in Africa and in Russian ally Belarus, and its soldiers were no longer fighting in the Ukraine war. https://t.co/UPdAKjrghF

— Levent Kemal (@leventkemaI) August 26, 2024

Despite several border incidents and accusations, Belarus has by and large stayed on the sidelines throughout the Russia-Ukraine war, though it has allowed Moscow forces to launch drones from its territory. But a feared troop incursion by Minsk forces into Ukraine has never come.

Yet Ukraine’s threats that Belarusian troops could become “legitimate targets” are somewhat empty, given Ukraine’s military is suffering severe manpower problems, and the opening of another war front with Belarus would only exacerbate the crisis.